Module 3
United States vs. Turkey
Political culture
United States
- Classical liberal roots: natural rights, limited government, suspicion of concentrated power
- Revolution and Constitution work almost like a civil religion
- Individualism: self-reliance, private property and free enterprise as things government protects
- Helps explain a smaller welfare state than Europe's and 'liberty' as rhetorical trump card
- Political fights often run as constitutional fights, a legalistic flavor most democracies don't have
- Originalism and enumerated limits vs evolving rights and federal capacity, each calling the other's reading illegitimate
Turkey
- One fault line for about a century: Kemalism against political Islam
- After 1923, Ataturk's secular, statist, Western-facing nationalism, with the military as guarantor
- Religious, socially conservative identity back since the 1990s, dominant under Erdogan's AKP after 2002
- Military coups in 1960, 1971 and 1980; memorandum in 1997
- Failed coup attempt in July 2016, then purges of military, judiciary and civil service
- Army's role as referee permanently over; the divide still there
Political institutions
United States
- Deliberately fragmented: three branches, plus federalism splitting Washington and the states
- Bicameral Congress, two chambers on different constituencies and election clocks
- Judicial review since Marbury v. Madison in 1803; Madison's ambition against ambition
- Downside: major laws need cross-institution cooperation, hard with the current party system
- Freedom House 2026 cut: 84 to 81, one point for gridlock and unilateral executive power
- Other two points for weakened anticorruption safeguards and reprisals for political speech
- My read: when Congress can't legislate, power moves to whichever branch acts alone
Turkey
- April 2017 referendum, passed about 51.4% to 48.6%, in effect after the 2018 elections
- Prime minister abolished; parliamentary system became an executive presidency
- President issues decrees with force of law, hires and fires ministers without confirmation
- Appoints senior judges and much of the judiciary's governing body; can dissolve parliament
- Same 'presidential system' label as the US, minus independent judicial appointment, confirmation and oversight
- AKP-MHP alliance plus an executive-aligned judiciary used to remove and prosecute opposition leaders
Political participation
United States
- Two-party duopoly locked in by single-member districts and first-past-the-post; voluntary voting
- 2024: 65.3% of citizen voting-age population voted, 73.6% registered (Census Bureau)
- Decent for the US, low next to peer democracies, much lower in midterms and local races
- Dense, largely unrestricted civil society: advocacy groups, adversarial press, protest movements
- Opt-in registration uneven across states; no compulsory voting; third parties mechanically suppressed
- Roughly a third of eligible citizens skip even the highest-turnout election
Turkey
- 2023 presidential turnout: 87.04% first round, 84.15% runoff (Supreme Election Council)
- Voting not strictly compulsory; turnout from strong party organization and a civic duty norm
- Opposition candidates won Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 and again in 2024
- Freedom House 2026: broad crackdown; courts removed CHP's elected leadership in May 2026
- Imamoglu in prison; hundreds of CHP officials jailed since 2024
- RSF press freedom 2026: 163rd of 180. Turnout reflects mobilization more than freedom
Political economy
United States
- Large, diversified, dollar-anchored market economy
- Central bank sets rates without day-to-day political direction
- Low-tax OECD country: about 25.6% of GDP in 2024 vs OECD average 34.1%
- Limits redistributive capacity even with large deficits
- August 2026: rising inflation and unemployment, consumer confidence down three straight months
- Tariffs and regulatory uncertainty raising small-business costs; economy feeds straight into approval
Turkey
- Yearslong experiment on Erdogan's belief that high interest rates cause inflation
- Rate cuts in a currency crisis, lira collapse, inflation peaking above 85% in 2022
- After the May 2023 election, sharp rate hikes; policy rate 37% as of July 2026, fourth straight hold
- Annual inflation 31.75% in July, down from 32.11% in June; roughly nine times the US rate
- Central bank independent on paper; governors who resisted cuts removed, so markets doubt it
- Narrow tax base, about 24.0% of GDP in 2024, in a far more volatile economy
Current challenges
United States
- August 2026: three supports weakening at once, unlike earlier rough patches
- Economic anxiety; senior resignations amid investigations
- Congressional inquiries into classified information handling and procurement
- Republican unity fracturing: House retirements, donors holding back, lawmakers breaking from the White House
- Formal architecture intact; still comfortably rated Free
- Norms of interbranch cooperation and party discipline under the most pressure in years
Turkey
- May 2026: court removed CHP's leadership, reinstated former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu
- July: Ozgur Ozel and roughly 90 lawmakers launched the New Party, now parliament's second-largest faction
- August: jailed Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu left the CHP after 17 years to join them
- Imprisoned on corruption charges he denies; widely seen as prosecution of Erdogan's top rival
- Split may help Erdogan by dividing the anti-AKP vote before the 14 May 2028 elections
- Freedom House due process: 0 out of 4, same as North Korea
- Press freedom 163rd of 180; inflation above 30%; rates held at 37%
- Pattern: one-party dominance through courts and prosecutions, elections formally intact
Power rankings, 1 to 10
Defending the rankings
Political freedom
US 7 / Turkey 2
United States
- Still rated Free with strong civil liberties, so no low score
- V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index down roughly 24% in one year, 20th to 51st of 179
- Freedom House cut three points: gridlock and unilateral executive action, anticorruption, speech reprisals
- A country in genuine decline doesn't belong at the top
Turkey
- Freedom House score of 32, Not Free
- V-Dem index around 0.11 vs global average near 0.372
- Opposition leadership removed by courts; leading opposition figure imprisoned
- 163rd of 180 on press freedom; limits on opposition organizing keep the score low
Stability
US 6 / Turkey 3
United States
- FSI score of 44.5, well inside the stable range globally
- Not among the world's most stable states
- Deep polarization and elevated risk of political violence in the governance score
- Six honest; eight too generous
Turkey
- FSI score of 84, nearly double the US, in the high warning band
- Recent coup attempt; unresolved Kurdish conflict; spillover from Syria
- Active crackdown on the opposition; measurable risks, so a three
State capacity
US 8 / Turkey 5
United States
- Government effectiveness 78.8, among the strongest measured despite political turbulence
- Thin tax base, 25.6% vs OECD average 34.1%, keeps it off a 9
Turkey
- Tax take close to the US: 24.0% of GDP vs 25.6%
- Much weaker administrative output: government effectiveness 50.6
- Functioning state, behind OECD peers on policy implementation and civil service quality
Corruption control
US 6 / Turkey 3
United States
- Score of 64: upper third globally, far from the cleanest
- Ranked 29th; record low under the current methodology
- Fits Transparency International's 2025 finding: established democracies slipping
Turkey
- Score of 31, 124th place: bottom third, level with Belarus and Uzbekistan
- Well below where real anti-corruption enforcement shows up
- Fits politicized courts and concentrated executive power
Citizen participation
US 5 / Turkey 9
United States
- Turnout of 65.3%: respectable for the US, mediocre internationally
- Much lower in midterms and local races
- A third of eligible citizens skip the top election, so mid-scale
Turkey
- Turnout above 84% in both rounds, exceptional
- Driven by real party mobilization and a strong civic norm
- Not a 10: participation inside a system constraining opposition organizing