AP Comp Gov Summer Work
2Political Scientist in TrainingFront page
Module 2

Political Scientist in Training

The UK House of Commons chamber almost empty during a rehearsal of hybrid sittings in April 2020, with its green benches, central table and Speaker's chair
The UK House of Commons chamber almost empty during a rehearsal of hybrid sittings in April 2020, with its green benches, central table and Speaker's chair Image: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor (CC BY 3.0)
Ratings for all five events
EventStabilityLegitimacyParticipationDemocracyState authority
01United Kingdommixedweakensmixedstrengthensweakens
02Iranweakensweakensweakensweakensmixed
03Nigeriamixedmixedstrengthensmixedstrengthens
04Peruweakensweakensmixedmixedweakens
05Philippinesweakensmixedmixedmixedweakens

strengthens mixed weakens

01

Starmer resigns as UK prime minister; Andy Burnham takes over without a general election

United KingdomLeadership transitionAnnounced resignation 22 June 2026. Burnham became PM 20 July 2026.

Keir Starmer announced his resignation as prime minister on 22 June 2026, less than two years after Labour's landslide win in 2024. A scandal over Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador had already cost him his chief of staff and communications director. Then on 7 May Labour was decimated in the local, Scottish and Welsh elections, losing 38 councils, and ministers began to quit. Andy Burnham, back in Parliament through a Makerfield by-election, won the leadership unopposed after 322 of 403 Labour MPs nominated him, and became prime minister on 20 July. No general election was held, and none is required until 2029.

Why it matters

  • Governing party can swap its leader when polls turn bad
  • Fast response compared with a fixed presidential term
  • Labour MPs, not voters, picked the person now running the country
  • No vote facing him for three years

Political science concepts

Parliamentary system
  • UK executive comes out of Parliament
  • Labour MPs could replace their own prime minister without consulting voters
  • Impossible in a presidential system outside impeachment
  • Britain on its seventh prime minister in about a decade
Legitimacy
  • Starmer's net approval roughly -57 by January 2026, Liz Truss territory
  • Collapse gave ministers cover to resign
  • Probably mattered more than any one scandal
  • Burnham's legitimacy rational-legal, purely procedural: 322 MPs, no ordinary voter
Political party
  • Whole fight inside Labour
  • Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly demanded Starmer's resignation
  • Burnham positioned himself from outside Westminster
  • Party rules decided who governs Britain

Stability analysis

Political stabilitymixed
  • Handover entirely through constitutional channels
  • No violence or crisis
  • Seventh prime minister in ten years, mid-term, after mass cabinet resignations
  • Hardly a settled system
Legitimacyweakens
  • Starmer's historic unpopularity and the May defeats
  • Government lost public confidence despite a large majority
  • Burnham inherits that gap without facing voters
Participationmixed
  • May turnout to punish Labour: participation working
  • MPs chose the prime minister
  • No direct citizen say in the outcome their votes triggered
Democracystrengthens
  • Unpopular leader removed peacefully, on schedule, by established rules
  • No crisis, no doubt he would go
State authorityweakens
  • Defence secretary lost over spending during an active security crisis
  • Senior ministers cycled through
  • Executive less coherent at a bad moment
02

Iran's Supreme Leader killed in US-Israeli strike; his son elected to replace him

IranLeadership transitionAli Khamenei killed 28 February 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei elected 8 March 2026.

On 28 February 2026, a joint US-Israeli strike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Iran retaliated across the region, and protests broke out worldwide, most violently in Pakistan, where 20 to 25 people were killed.

On 8 March the 88-member Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba. The constitutional process was followed, but with remarkable speed and reported IRGC pressure, and a revolution built on rejecting monarchy has now handed power from father to son. Mojtaba hasn't been seen in public since March, and a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire collapsed on 8 July.

Why it matters

  • Authoritarian transfers rare and hard to observe, so usually studied as regimes holding power
  • Iran mid-transfer: leadership decapitated, succession opaque
  • Oil exports near zero, inflation near 90%
  • Daily gasoline shortfalls of about 14 million liters
  • Regime's way through it a test of its durability

Political science concepts

Theocracy
  • Final authority with a cleric chosen by other clerics, no role for voters
  • Violent, unwarned loss of the man at the top
  • Test: authority in the office or in him personally
Legitimacy
  • Assembly of Experts did vote, so procedure technically followed
  • Mid-ranking cleric elevated over more senior ones
  • Father-to-son transfer in a republic founded against monarchy
  • Successor unseen for five months
  • Rational-legal legitimacy needs a procedure that looks real; going through the motions may not count
Rule by law
  • Parliament expanded 'infiltration' laws criminalizing more ordinary activity
  • Executions surged; over 93% unannounced in 2025
  • Legal system works fine, aimed at the population instead of the state

Stability analysis

Political stabilityweakens
  • Leader lost
  • Economy in free fall
  • Conflict unresolved, no formal ceasefire
Legitimacyweakens
  • Vote happened
  • Hereditary transfer to an under-qualified cleric, then out of view
  • Undercuts the claim to rule through sanctioned religious authority
Participationweakens
  • Succession answered with expanded criminal law and faster executions
  • No channel for public input ever opened
Democracyweakens
  • No electorate involved
  • Succession settled among clerics under security-service pressure
State authoritymixed
  • Security figures moved to consolidate control around Mojtaba
  • Real assertion of authority
  • State can't reliably deliver fuel or a stable currency
  • Authority slipping in practice too
03

Nigeria's opposition splinters as INEC publishes credentials for 19 presidential candidates

NigeriaElection and party politicsCoalition fracturing through mid-2026. INEC published candidate credentials early August 2026. Presidential election 16 January 2027.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar left the PDP in July 2025 to build a united opposition around the African Democratic Congress, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, against President Bola Tinubu in the January 2027 election. It fell apart. Two aspirants called the ADC primary fraudulent, and by June Obi and Kwankwaso had left for the Nigeria Democratic Congress. Tinubu's FCT minister Nyesom Wike is enjoying it, arguing the presidency should stay in the South until 2031 under Nigeria's informal North-South rotation, which rules out Atiku, a northerner. INEC published all 19 presidential candidates' credentials in early August.

Why it matters

  • Real multiparty competition hinges on opposition coordination, so far absent
  • Elite rivalry and zoning arithmetic break up the challenge before voters see it
  • INEC publishing candidate credentials points the other way
  • Past elections badly lacked transparency about who was running

Political science concepts

Political party
  • Atiku moved parties
  • His new coalition immediately accused itself of rigging its primary
  • Parties mostly vehicles for individual ambition, rarely durable organizations with programs
  • Weak party institutionalization in practice
Patron-client system
  • Wike still controls PDP structures while backing the ruling party's president
  • Only makes sense as patronage
  • Loyalty to whoever delivers appointments, contracts and oil revenue
  • Platforms matter much less
Political cleavage
  • Zoning fight: North-South regional and religious cleavage as informal constitutional rule
  • Wike and Atiku arguing whose turn it is to hold the presidency
  • Policy barely comes into it

Stability analysis

Political stabilitymixed
  • Legal channels, statutory timetable, no violence
  • Coalitions collapsing this close to a national election
  • Contest still unsettled
Legitimacymixed
  • All 19 candidates' credentials published under the Electoral Act
  • Real transparency gain
  • Tinubu again omitted primary and secondary school records
  • Exactly the credibility question the rule exists to answer
Participationstrengthens
  • Nineteen candidates running
  • Credentials open to public scrutiny
  • Voter registration closed on schedule on 30 August
Democracymixed
  • Crowded, competitive field under enforced legal deadlines
  • Democratic machinery working
  • Fragmentation still narrows the real choice
State authoritystrengthens
  • INEC met its statutory obligations on time
  • Pretty clear sign of a functioning electoral bureaucracy
04

Keiko Fujimori wins Peru's presidency by 0.27 points after a chaotic election

PeruElection and institutional crisisFirst round 12 April 2026. Runoff 7 June 2026. Inaugurated 28 July 2026.
Peru 2026 election timelineTimeline from the 12 April first round through the 7 June runoff decided by 0.27 points to the 28 July inauguration.First round, 35 candidates12 APR 2026Runoff, 0.27-point margin7 JUN 2026Fujimori inaugurated28 JUL 2026
The 2026 election, first round to inauguration.

Keiko Fujimori is Peru's ninth president in ten years. Most of her predecessors resigned, were forced out by protests, attempted a self-coup, or were removed by Congress, most recently José Jerí by a 75-24 censure vote in February 2026.

The 12 April first round, with 35 candidates, was chaotic. Late ballots in Lima kept 52,000 to 63,000 people from voting, and far-right candidate Rafael López Aliaga alleged fraud and called for an insurgency. Observers found no basis for his claims, and he was later criminally charged. Fujimori beat Roberto Sánchez in the 7 June runoff by 0.27 points and was inaugurated on 28 July.

Why it matters

  • Standard case of hyper-presidentialism in political science
  • Weak parties, a fragmented Congress, removal mechanisms loose enough to use at will
  • Nine presidents in a decade probably not bad luck
  • 2026 test: a president with essentially no margin vs a legislature that removed four presidents since 2020

Political science concepts

Presidential system
  • President and Congress elected separately
  • No routine way out of deadlock, a known flaw of presidentialism
  • Congress stretched 'permanent moral incapacity' to cover ordinary political disagreement
  • Peru's deadlock exit: remove the president
Rule by law
  • Jerí removed by simple-majority censure
  • Skipped the roughly two-thirds vacancia threshold
  • Congress picked the procedure that got its preferred outcome
  • Law as tool, not limit
Legitimacy
  • Fujimori won by 0.27 points
  • Tens of thousands locked out by a logistics failure
  • Millions of ballots spoiled or blank
  • Win legally valid, politically thin
  • Faces a Congress in the habit of removing presidents

Stability analysis

Political stabilityweakens
  • Old pattern unbroken
  • Fujimori starts with an evenly split electorate
  • Congress removed four presidents since 2020 by reinterpreting its own rules
Legitimacyweakens
  • Ballot failures disenfranchised tens of thousands
  • Fraud claims spread before being debunked
  • Final margin under one point
  • Mandate open to attack
Participationmixed
  • Millions voted under compulsory rules despite the chaos
  • Over nine million abstained or cast blank or invalid ballots
  • Under compulsory voting, deliberate refusal rather than apathy
Democracymixed
  • Election held, certified, peaceful transfer of power
  • Congress keeps manipulating removal thresholds
  • Hollows out the checks that give the transfer meaning
State authorityweakens
  • Electoral bodies couldn't reliably deliver ballots
  • Officials arrested or charged, including ONPE's electoral management director
  • Basic administrative competence in question
05

Sara Duterte's second impeachment trial opens as the ICC sends her father to trial

PhilippinesScandal and constitutional crisisHouse impeachment 11 May 2026. Senate trial opened 6 July 2026. ICC confirmed charges 23 April 2026.
Philippines 2026 proceedings timelineTimeline showing the ICC confirming charges on 23 April 2026, the House impeaching Sara Duterte on 11 May, and the Senate trial opening on 6 July.ICC confirms charges23 APR 2026House impeaches Duterte11 MAY 2026Senate trial opens6 JUL 2026
Three proceedings in eleven weeks.

On 11 May 2026 the Philippine House impeached Vice President Sara Duterte 257 to 25, making her the first official impeached twice, and her Senate trial began on 6 July. Her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, is in ICC custody in The Hague after judges confirmed crimes against humanity charges over his drug war on 23 April. Behind both cases is a Marcos-Duterte power struggle, sharpened by President Marcos Jr.'s expansion of US military access under EDCA, which the Dutertes oppose.

Why it matters

  • 1987 constitution's limits on foreign military bases meant to prevent another Marcos dictatorship
  • A Marcos now expanding US access under EDCA
  • Same Marcos prosecuting the family that opposes it
  • Test of whether those limits still hold
  • ICC case: can a former head of state answer for thousands of killings domestic courts ignored

Political science concepts

Rule of law
  • Constitutional impeachment and ICC prosecution under international law both reach the once untouchable
  • Duterte camp calls both politically weaponized
  • My view: a process can be legally sound and politically motivated at once
Political cleavage
  • Politics organized around rival dynasties, not parties or ideologies
  • Marcos-Duterte split runs through the Senate, the House and the executive at once
Presidential system
  • President and vice president elected separately, currently from opposing camps
  • Marcos allies maneuvering for Senate leadership
  • Impeachment rules being rewritten
  • Dutertes allege charter change push to extend Marcos's hold on power

Stability analysis

Political stabilityweakens
  • Three flashpoints in one day
  • Pro-Marcos bloc since restructured Senate leadership and impeachment rules
Legitimacymixed
  • Impeachment and ICC prosecution: legitimate accountability tools
  • Using them strengthens institutions
  • Changing Senate leadership and impeachment procedures mid-impeachment weakens them
Participationmixed
  • Mostly an elite fight: senators, the executive, an international court
  • Past pro-Duterte demonstrations were large
  • Public opinion still shapes what either family can risk
Democracymixed
  • Constitutional accountability mechanisms in use, as intended
  • Faction rewriting those rules mid-process a separate problem
State authorityweakens
  • Presidency, vice presidency, Senate and an international court in open conflict
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